5 races down, 12 races to go, 43 points down from the leader, 7 riders ahead of him in the standings, a mechanical failure that’s a first since hooking up with Jeremy Burgess. It’s fair to say Valentino Rossi has never been in this territory, at least not in this millenium… With such a bad start to his season, many are asking: can he win The Championship?

Michelle Dove wrote that Rossi is basically finished, emotionally drained, a Jack Nicholson without the charisma. That he’s lost his lust for his beloved MotoGP and needs an affair with Formula One.

On the eve of Mugello, Rossi is standing across a scary looking chasm, it would seem, and he’s definitely looking scrawny…

But then, he’s looked scrawny before, and also shaken and worn down. Remember 2003. Remember the Italian press getting on his case that he’s lost it. Remember Sete’s rise as Rossi’s #1 contender. Now remember that Rossi won 2003 a massive 80 points ahead of Sete Gibernau. And that the reason he looked lost, shaken, and worn down we now know was that behind the scenes he was working on the deal with Yamaha. Trying to get Jeremy Burgess to come with him. All on race weekends, sometimes spending sleepless nights before the race.

2006, in many ways, is what 2004 should have looked like, even according to Vale’s own words prior to the start of that incredible season at Welkom. He clearly said it would be a while before he would be able to start winning races. Maybe he’s paying a karmic price.

Michelle’s article dealt with the psychology, and I won’t delve into that aspect as we have no idea what’s going on in Valentino Rossi’s shaggy head (but man, he could really use a haircut). I do know one thing tho. He’s not done. He just isn’t done! I’m going to make a more pragmatic case for Rossi which does not involve his love life…

First off, he is 43 points from Nicky Hayden who hasn’t won a race since his maiden Laguna Seca win last year. Nicky is a great guy and a great rider, but while he has discovered amazing consistency, he still doesn’t seem to be able to pull off those “W’s”. Marco Melandri, on the other hand, has won 4 races out of the last 7 (including the 2 at the end of 2005). He’s 2nd in the standings, tied with Loris Capirossi at 79 points. That’s 39 points ahead of Rossi. And arguably, the biggest threat of the year could be the little spaniard Pedrosa who is 4th with 73 points, thus 33 points ahead. Suddenly the margin doesn’t look quite as impossible to beat. Still difficult, but when has Valentino Rossi folded in the face of adversity?

Those images of Rossi driving away from the stricken Yamaha at Le Mans two weeks ago, head in his hands, motionless, were very powerful. But just a few hours later, Rossi said an interesting thing. Yes, the bike failed, and leaving Le Mans without any poins was painful, but Rossi was extremely pleased nonetheless. Because the Yamaha, which has been miserable for 4 races (including the Qatar win which frankly was just due to the track nature and Rossi’s sheer determination) is finally back. Witness Edwards standing on the podium for the first time since Laguna. Witness Rossi’s unbelievable 21 lap rout of the rest of the field prior to his mechanical failure. This is the Rossi of 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005… Riding a bike he trusts, one that he can push further than any rider in the world.

In 2004, Rossi won by “only” 47 points. He beat Sete Gibernau. Just Sete. Max Biaggi was almost 84 points down and 4th place Barros 139! In 2005, he was 147 points ahead of 2nd place Marco Melandri (147 points is what 8th placed Alex Barros managed throughout the whole season!) , 161 ahead of Nicky Hayden, and 188 points ahead of Edwards. What I am getting at is that when Rossi was challenged like in 2003 and 2004 he was battling mainly one guy: Sete Gibernau. In 2005 the threat of Gibernau was not there and he won by a massive margin.

In 2006 Rossi’s greatest hope is the very talent and strength of the entire MotoGP grid. There is no runaway competitor. There are 3 other guys who have already won races, and probably 2 others that will win some before the season is over. And this is the story that plays best to the Valentino Rossi script. It’s Rossi vs. The World. It’s Rossi vs. Honda. Talk about motivation. Talk about a challenge. With 12 races left there’s 300 points to play for, and Rossi “only” has to win 9 races, and finish the other 3 in decent points to surmount the 43 point deficit. That’s assuming that Nicky is the only other rider challenging him. Which is not going to be the case.

I think Sete was probably smiling a big evil smile when he passed Rossi’s Yamaha at that corner in Le Mans. But I think it’s time for him, and others, to face the facts. The F1 drama has ended. Rossi is staying in MotoGP for the foreseeable future. He has signed with Yamaha for 2007. There’s no more pressure outside the track. And the bike, which has been so problematic seems to be back in order. And we’re in Mugello, Italy, and the magic is just about to begin.

The Doctor is in.

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