Splendid Isolation

There are many things that fans love about MotoGP: The banshee wail of the worlds fastest racing motorcycles; The thrill of watching the best motorcycle racers in the world scrap it out in tough, race-long battles; The extraordinary levels of skill required to put in an inch-perfect lap, and knowing that nobody could have ridden a motorcycle faster. But there’s more than just the on-track action which attracts the fans. There’s the exhilaration of being caught up in the massed emotions of thousands upon thousands of people who all share the same passion that you do, and celebrate that passion by partying for days on end. That giant group experience is a big part of the pull of MotoGP, that sense of belonging.

Which is why it’s strange that the 2009 MotoGP season starts with not one, but two races at tracks which are both a long way from MotoGP’s main fan base in Europe, and have a strangely sterile atmosphere. The season opener - when it finally ran on Monday, after rain prevented the race from taking place under the ironically named floodlights on Sunday night - took place at the Losail circuit in Qatar, a vast complex in the middle of the desert, located in a country with a tiny population, very few of whom are particularly interested in motorcycle racing. At night, with the floodlights on, the grandstands at least look full, as these are about the only place where the fans can actually sit. Losail feels a very long way from anywhere.

And the venue for the second race of the season is only a little better. At least Motegi is in Japan, a country with a long history of motorcycle racing, but even then the remarkable facility - which boasts one of the finest racing museums on the planet - is a long way from anything resembling civilization. The only accommodation nearby is the on-site hotel, and links to the outside world are limited.

The Cheap Seats

Once at the circuit, the fact that it is really two tracks in one make it feel even more remote for spectators; The Twin Ring layout, with a short oval and a longer road course, mean that the main grandstands are on the outside of the oval creating a sense of separation from the action. The crowd is a long way from the main straight, which runs on the inside of the oval, the road course sharing no part of the track with the oval.

The reason for this rather strange layout is because the facility was built as a test track by Honda as part of their assault on the US-based IndyCar series, which they later went on to dominate, becoming the single engine supplier - with a little help from Ilmor. This genesis also finds expression in the nature of the track, with the layout designed in such a way to test a range of specific vehicle behaviors under controlled conditions.

The clinically-designed track layout has created a stop-and-go circuit which simply refuses to flow. The track starts with a double right hander which brings the track back on itself, followed by two more right handers, reversing direction again. A sharp right follows, leading onto the only part of the track which really flows. The riders head into the tunnel under the track - a tunnel so dark the bikes should be fitted with lights, according to Nicky Hayden - before hitting a fast right kink and a short straight setting them up for the nearest thing Motegi has to a set of Esses.

Once out of the left-right combination, a sharp left takes the riders up to the hairpin which leads onto the long back straight. At the end of the straight lies another sharp right hander, but there’s a twist. The straight dips towards the end, right as the riders are hardest on the brakes, all of the weight over the front wheel. Get it wrong, and the downhill slope is enough to make the difference between making the corner and losing the front as you tip it in, and many a rider has had his race end in the gravel here.

Get through it safely, though, and the riders head back under the oval and off towards the main straight. There’s a left-hand kink and a left-right chicane to negotiate, but get through that, and they’re back across the straight, and ready to head into the corner at close to 160mph.

The Thirsty Traveler

The stop-and-go nature of the track causes a couple of huge problems for the riders and the teams. The biggest concern for the teams is fuel consumption, as the bikes spend a lot of time with the throttle wide open, accelerating from low speed. Burn through your fuel too quickly, and you risk either running dry, or losing places after being the fueling system reduces the amount of power to ensure you make it to the finish line.

The riders face a different problem: The track is very hard on injuries, with four places on the track where the riders are braking at over 1.5g for extended periods. Anyone with wrist, shoulder, neck or back injuries has a tough time at Motegi, as they spend a lot of time bearing one and a half times their body weight mainly through their wrists.

It was this that finally ended Casey Stoner’s valiant defense of his championship last year. For over half the race, Stoner looked like holding off Valentino Rossi and at least ceding his title dearly. But his injured scaphoid had forced Stoner to change his style, and this had exhausted him, clearing the way for Valentino Rossi to regain the title he lost two years previously with a win.

This year, Casey Stoner arrives at Motegi after surgery to fix his scaphoid, which is healing well but still limiting his movement. But the carbon-fiber chassis of the Ducati GP9 has solved the rear wheel pumping which plagued the Ducati, and the combination of a much fitter Casey Stoner and a seriously improved Desmosedici proved impossible to beat at Qatar, and offers the prospect of more of the same at Motegi.

Ducati’s electronics engineers have fuel consumption for the bike down to a fine art, and Ducati’s desmodromic valve actuation helps here too. The system generates much less resistance than conventional or pneumatic valve springs, and so less power is wasted in opening valves against a spring. And Ducati has an outstanding record here, too, Valentino Rossi’s 2008 victory ending a run of three Ducati wins in a row at Motegi. Casey Stoner is in unstoppable form, and there is little reason to believe this will change at Motegi.

Not So Fast

The one man capable of preventing a victory at Motegi is the man who won here last year. The roles are reversed in 2009, and Valentino Rossi comes to Motegi with a title to defend. But unlike last season, the MotoGP circus arrives in Japan at the very beginning of the season, rather than near the end, so there is all still to play for. Rossi has had an unhappy relationship with the Twin Ring, having won here just twice in the premier class, in 2001 and 2008, but with a long string of 2nd places. This is not a track Rossi likes at all, and The Doctor will be concentrating on staying as close to Casey Stoner as he possibly can, rather than challenging him outright. That can wait until we return to Europe.

Though Casey Stoner and Valentino Rossi demonstrated they were in a class of their own at Qatar - a situation unlikely to change for a while yet - there are riders waiting in the wings for their chance to join them. Foremost of those are the other Yamaha riders, the 2009 M1 proving to be the best machine on the grid so far. And foremost of the Yamaha men is most definitely Jorge Lorenzo.

Lorenzo’s 3rd place at Qatar was proof, if it were needed, that Lorenzo is the best of the rest. But that is simply not good enough for the young Spaniard and he is hungry for more. Lorenzo is still getting used to the Bridgestone tires, and his progress so far suggests there could be more to come for the Fiat Yamaha man. If Lorenzo and his team can find another couple of tenths a lap - not easy, but hardly a Herculean task either - then the Mallorcan can start on his task to usurp Dani Pedrosa as Spain’s prime candidate to take the country’s first premier class title since Alex Criville in 1999.

If Lorenzo took a little while to adapt to the Bridgestones, Colin Edwards took to them like a duck to water. Edwards has always been a front end man, and the phenomenal grip and stability of Bridgestone’s front tire suits his style down to the ground. The Texan has been uniformly quick aboard his Monster Tech 3 Yamaha, but Edwards has a mediocre record at Motegi, suggesting he may not be a factor for victory here. But with so many of his rivals handicapped by a multitude of problems, Edwards could record his best result here for years.

One of those rivals facing problems is Edwards’ own Tech 3 team mate, James Toseland. Toseland has had a miserable preseason, facing difficulties adapting to the Bridgestones, and then two huge highsides, damaging both his body and his confidence. Toseland knows he is riding for his job this year and is off to a very inauspicious start, running off track and finishing out of the points at Qatar. The Yorkshireman needs to start rebuilding his confidence, and get his season back on track. JT needs a top 10 finish as a start to being competitive once again.

No Place Like Home

If Toseland is the only Yamaha rider with problems, the same cannot be said for the Honda riders. Ironically, as Honda built the Twin Ring Motegi and still own it, the marque hasn’t won a race here since Makoto Tamada won - on Bridgestones - in 2004. Their fortunes are unlikely to change in 2009, ironically again because all their bikes are on Bridgestone tires.

Despite Dani Pedrosa making the switch from Michelin to Bridgestone with five races to go in the 2008 season, HRC have still not managed to set the RC212V up for the Japanese rubber. Better grip from the front end means that weight needs to be shifted rearward, but shift too far, and you end up losing the front, something even the greatest of riders have difficulty coping with. And so the slow process of adapting the RC212V continues, but it is far from complete.

Part of Honda’s problem is that their lead rider, Repsol Honda man Dani Pedrosa, missed so much of winter testing with a knee injury. The Spaniard returned to action at Qatar but was only barely fit. Despite his physical problems, Pedrosa showed real grit in getting through the race, even looking competitive until he was nearly knocked off the track by Alex de Angelis. With another two weeks to recover, Pedrosa will arrive at Motegi stronger and fitter, and with more range of motion in his knee. He is unlikely to be fit enough to be a contender, but he should be able to score solid points which he will hope will come in useful at the end of the season.

Pedrosa’s Repsol Honda team mate showed plenty of promise at Qatar, just as he did last year on the satellite Team Scot bike. With a 5th place at the last race, Andrea Dovizioso justified the faith that HRC bosses have placed in him. But Dovi’s inexperience with factory equipment is working against him a little: Previously, the Italian has excelled at getting the last ounce of performance out of underperforming equipment; Now, though, Dovizioso has more freedom to make changes, a process which is also more time-consuming and carries the risk of going in completely the wrong direction. Add to this having to adapt to the Bridgestone tires, and the Italian has a lot of learning to do. If he can repeat last race’s 5th place at Motegi, he will have done well.

Special Case

The other Honda riders are far less fortunate. Toni Elias on the factory-spec Gresini Honda is having the most problems with the tires. The flyweight (despite his stocky appearance) Spaniard is struggling to get heat into the front tire, and can no longer rely on the special soft construction Bridgestone built for him last year. Until Elias either finds a way around this problem, or his team find a setting which solves it for him, Elias will continue to struggle.

For the riders on the satellite spec RC212V, things are not looking much better. Despite Alex de Angelis’ outstanding 6th place at Qatar, the fact that his Gresini Honda ran out of fuel on the cooldown lap is a harbinger of ill fortune and empty fuel tanks at Motegi. Fuel consumption will be screwed right back on the satellite bikes to deal with Motegi’s stop-and-go layout, leaving de Angelis, LCR Honda’s Randy de Puniet and Team Scot’s Yuki Takahashi out in the cold. At least de Puniet will have the shoulders of a few Playboy Bunnies to cry on, as the Italian edition of the Magazine will be sponsoring the LCR Honda at Motegi, and then at Jerez a week later.

The team which stands to benefit most from Honda’s misfortune is Rizla Suzuki. And they could benefit very richly indeed: The 2009 version of the Suzuki GSV-R is vastly improved, and as Loris Capirossi won the race here for three years in a row, from 2005 through 2007, there’s every reason to believe he will be a factor at Motegi. If Capirex gets a good start, and can match the pace of Rossi and Stoner, he may even do battle for the podium, or perhaps victory here on Sunday. The work which Suzuki has done on acceleration could be richly rewarded at Motegi.

And Capirossi isn’t Suzuki’s only threat. The weather for Motegi is looking decidedly unsettled, with rain almost certain on Saturday, and a good chance of rain for the race. And when it rains, Chris Vermeulen comes into his own. As much as he detests the label of a wet-weather rider, he has earned his reputation as a master of wet conditions, taking a win and several strong finishes in the rain. A wet Saturday would offer Vermeulen a shot at pole, and rain on Sunday could see the Australian causing quite an upset. The Rizla Suzuki team are likely to be happy come rain or shine at Motegi.

Red Mystery

While Casey Stoner continues to destroy all that oppose him on the Ducati Desmosedici GP9, he remains an anomaly. The rest of the Ducati riders face a much more difficult task than the Australian, and nobody has been able to offer an explanation for why this should be so. The burden of this fact is heaviest to bear for Stoner’s Marlboro Ducati team mate, Nicky Hayden. Though Hayden continues to make small steps forward with the Ducati, he is still having problems getting to grips with the way the bike adjusts its fueling from corner to corner, and the fact that it is so incredibly sensitive to setup changes.

Add to this Hayden’s horrible hundredth MotoGP race at Qatar, his debut on the Ducati despoiled by mechanical issues, electrical issues, a blown engine and then a monster highside, and it seems unlikely that the Kentucky Kid will be troubling the scorers much this weekend. Hayden’s main focus will be on recovering his fitness and learning what he can about the Ducati’s fickle nature, so that he might tame it better once the team returns to Europe, and Hayden returns to fitness.

Hayden’s woes are not helped by Mika Kallio’s strong result on the Ducati at Qatar. The Finnish rookie finished 8th in the desert, and has shown signs that he could also have mastered the knack of riding the GP9. Kallio’s 8th place prompted speculation that the bike best suits riders who have never ridden a MotoGP machine before, their blank slate approach removing any expectations of how the bike should behave, and consequently allowing them to deal with the bike, rather than how they think the bike should be. It is still early days for Kallio, but the light at the end of the tunnel may not turn out to be an oncoming train after all.

For Kallio’s team mate Niccolo Canepa, it’s definitely a train. The Italian rookie is grappling not just with the GP9, but also with his first year in the MotoGP paddock, having to learn new tracks, and trying not to be too overawed by the situation. He has gone from student to MotoGP star, and that’s a huge transition for anyone to make. He has a lot of learning left before judgment can be felled on him.

Left Field

The real dark horse at Motegi must be Marco Melandri. After the Hayate team announced they would continue with Kawasaki’s disbanded MotoGP program, few people thought the bike would be little more than a grid filler. But after the Hayate team managed to solve the rear grip problems that Kawasaki failed to crack in an entire year, the bike has looked surprisingly competitive. Add to this a strangely rejuvenated Marco Melandri, happy because now he is riding a bike that he at least understands, and quite literally anything could happen.

The one thing that we can be sure of is that Melandri and the Hayate team will be hoping for a strong result in Japan. Senior figures from inside Kawasaki are likely to be attending the race, and if Melandri can finish well there, the team may be able to persuade the factory to pour just a little bit more development into the bike, giving them a fighting chance to remain competitive for the rest of the season.

Motegi may not be the ideal place for the kind of MotoGP fiesta which we see at Jerez, Mugello or Brno. The atmosphere may be a little strained, the track is strangely unsatisfactory, and the track’s isolation may prevent large numbers of fans from heading to the event. But still there is the prospect of some interesting racing in Japan. The race is likely to be a two-man battle between Casey Stoner and Valentino Rossi, but the outcome of that duel is far from uncertain; Loris Capirossi and Jorge Lorenzo could prove unwelcome guests at the Stoner-Rossi feast, and disrupt the plans either man may have; And if it rains, as well it could, all bets are off, and the podium could turn out to be completely different from what we anticipated.

After the Qatar race, there was much complaining that the racing had become processional, and the results predictable after just a few laps. Motegi might just throw a curve ball at those complaints, and bring back some interest, and maybe even some excitement. We’ll know for sure come Sunday.

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